Pentagon: Climate Change Will Destroy Us
· Secret report
warns of rioting and nuclear war
· Britain
will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years
· Threat to
the world is greater than terrorism
Mark Townsend and Paul Harris
Climate change over the next 20 years could result in
a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters.
A secret report, suppressed by US defense chiefs and obtained
by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian'
climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.
The document predicts that abrupt climate change could
bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and
energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.
'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,'
concludes the Pentagon analysis. 'Once again, warfare would define human life.'
The findings will prove humiliating to the Bush administration,
which has repeatedly denied that climate change even exists. Experts said that they will also make unsettling reading for
a President who has insisted national defense is a priority.
The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defense
adviser Andrew Marshall, who has held considerable sway on US
military thinking over the past three decades. He was the man behind a sweeping recent review aimed at transforming the American
military under Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Climate change 'should be elevated beyond a scientific
debate to a US national security concern',
say the authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug Randall of
the California-based Global Business Network.
An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is
'plausible and would challenge United States
national security in ways that should be considered immediately', they conclude. As early as next year widespread flooding
by a rise in sea levels will create major upheaval for millions.
Last week the Bush administration came under heavy fire
from a large body of respected scientists who claimed that it cherry-picked science to suit its policy agenda and suppressed
studies that it did not like. Jeremy Symons, a former whistleblower at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said that
suppression of the report for four months was a further example of the White House trying to bury the threat of climate change.
Senior climatologists, however, believe that their verdicts
could prove the catalyst in forcing Bush to accept climate change as a real and happening phenomenon. They also hope it will
convince the United States to sign up
to global treaties to reduce the rate of climatic change.
A group of eminent UK
scientists recently visited the White House to voice their fears over global warming, part of an intensifying drive to get
the US to treat the issue seriously. Sources
have told The Observer that American officials appeared extremely sensitive about the issue when faced with complaints that
America's public stance appeared increasingly
out of touch.
One even alleged that the White House had written to complain
about some of the comments attributed to Professor Sir David King, Tony Blair's chief scientific adviser, after he branded
the President's position on the issue as indefensible.
Among those scientists present at the White House talks
were Professor John Schellnhuber, former chief environmental adviser to the German government and head of the UK's leading group of climate scientists at the Tyndall Centre
for Climate Change Research. He said that the Pentagon's internal fears should prove the 'tipping point' in persuading Bush
to accept climatic change.
Sir John Houghton, former chief executive of the Meteorological
Office - and the first senior figure to liken the threat of climate change to that of terrorism - said: 'If the Pentagon is
sending out that sort of message, then this is an important document indeed.'
Bob Watson, chief scientist for the World Bank and former
chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, added that the Pentagon's dire warnings could no longer be ignored.
'Can Bush ignore the Pentagon? It's going be hard to blow
off this sort of document. Its hugely embarrassing. After all, Bush's single highest priority is national defence. The Pentagon
is no wacko, liberal group, generally speaking it is conservative. If climate change is a threat to national security and
the economy, then he has to act. There are two groups the Bush Administration tend to listen to, the oil lobby and the Pentagon,'
added Watson.
'You've got a President who says global warming is a hoax,
and across the Potomac river you've got a Pentagon preparing for climate wars. It's pretty
scary when Bush starts to ignore his own government on this issue,' said Rob Gueterbock of Greenpeace.
Already, according to Randall and Schwartz, the planet
is carrying a higher population than it can sustain. By 2020 'catastrophic' shortages of water and energy supply will become
increasingly harder to overcome, plunging the planet into war. They warn that 8,200 years ago climatic conditions brought
widespread crop failure, famine, disease and mass migration of populations that could soon be repeated.
Randall told The Observer that the potential ramifications
of rapid climate change would create global chaos. 'This is depressing stuff,' he said. 'It is a national security threat
that is unique because there is no enemy to point your guns at and we have no control over the threat.'
Randall added that it was already possibly too late to
prevent a disaster happening. 'We don't know exactly where we are in the process. It could start tomorrow and we would not
know for another five years,' he said.
'The consequences for some nations of the climate change
are unbelievable. It seems obvious that cutting the use of fossil fuels would be worthwhile.'
So dramatic are the report's scenarios, Watson said, that
they may prove vital in the US elections.
Democratic frontrunner John Kerry is known to accept climate change as a real problem. Scientists disillusioned with Bush's
stance are threatening to make sure Kerry uses the Pentagon report in his campaign.
The fact that Marshall
is behind its scathing findings will aid Kerry's cause. Marshall,
82, is a Pentagon legend who heads a secretive think-tank dedicated to weighing risks to national security called the Office
of Net Assessment. Dubbed 'Yoda' by Pentagon insiders who respect his vast experience, he is credited with being behind the
Department of Defense's push on ballistic-missile defense.
Symons, who left the EPA in protest at political interference,
said that the suppression of the report was a further instance of the White House trying to bury evidence of climate change.
'It is yet another example of why this government should stop burying its head in the sand on this issue.'
Symons said the Bush administration's close links to high-powered
energy and oil companies was vital in understanding why climate change was received skeptically in the Oval Office. 'This
administration is ignoring the evidence in order to placate a handful of large energy and oil companies,' he added.