Presidential Crisis Theory
Some years back I befriended a man who seemed to be obsessed with patterns in historical events.
As we munched an occasional meal together he would expound on various conspiracy theories, and suppositions about possible
alternate realities than the world as we thought we knew it.
I liked his mind, and enjoyed his ideas. He did his research and could present mathematical
data to virtually prove the patterns and make me believe that they were somewhat plausible. I think he was among a number
of special people "sent" to reprogram my brain in those early years of awakening. He helped make me aware of the plastic,
artificial world that we think is real.
One of his theories still haunts me as I watch the political games going on in our national capital.
He said that to be elected to a second term, a president must establish a national crisis about mid-way through his first
four years in office, and have it resolved before the next election. We can easily see this pattern during the last half century,
but with some odd variations.
The Great Depression began in 1928, only months after Herbert Hoover took office. It was not resolved
by the end of his first term and he became a political scapegoat and a one-term president.
Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated Hoover in 1932. He introduced the New Deal that put a lot of people
to work on government projects, and won a second term in 1936. His policies were so popular, Roosevelt was re-elected to a
third term in 1940 just as America was about to enter World War II and a third term in 1944. Harry S. Truman was his vice-president
that year. After Roosevelt, Congress passed a law limiting presidental terms to two.
Roosevelt died in 1945 and Truman completed the term that concluded in 1948. Truman was in office
when Germany surrendered and he made the decision to order the atomic attack that quickly ended the war against Japan. He
was involved in the formation of the United Nations, the Marshall Plan for rebuilding Europe, and established the Fair Deal,
offering an expansion of Social Security, the Fair Employment Practices Act, a public housing program and slum clearance.
He won his first elected full term in 1948.
The Korean conflict broke out in 1950 and was unresolved in 1952. Even though he was eligible to
seek a second full elected term, Truman chose to step down that year.
General Dwight D. Eisenhower was Truman's successor. He brought a truce between North and South
Korea in 1953 and stopped the fighting. He was a two-term president, serving until 1961.
John F. Kennedy was assassinated in office before completing his first term. Vice President Lyndon
Johnson completed the last year of Kennedy's term and easily won an elected four-year term in 1964. But racial tensions at
home and the Vietnam War escalated, Johnson could not resolve these issues and he chose not to seek a second term.
Richard M. Nixon was the next president. He brought an end to the Vietnam conflict, made moves toward
world peace including an unprecedented trip to China during his first term and was handily re-elected. But the Watergate scandal
broke out in the midst of the election campaign. It forced Nixon's resignation in the middle of his second term.
Gerald Ford took office to complete Nixon's term. His error was that he pardoned Nixon, making it
impossible for Nixon to be criminally prosecuted for any wrongdoing. Ford never was elected to a full term.
Jimmy Carter took office in 1977. The Iranian seizure of U. S. embassy hostages near the end of
his first term was a crisis that could not be resolved and Carter lost his bid for re-election to Ronald Reagan.
Reagan served during prosperous times and had no trouble winning a second term. His military adventure
in Granada in October, 1983, when 6000 troops were sent to the island to stop what was thought to have been a Cuban invasion
was carefully orchestrated by the media. It became Reagan's carefully orchestrated pre-election crisis. The truth, not revealed
until later, was that the Cubans were there to help build an airstrip to promote tourism. The whole event was staged.
George Bush the senior launched his "crisis" war against Iraq too early. He gained a high state
of national popularity at the conclusion of this event, but his term was only about half expired. By the time his first term
ended, Bush was faced with a financial crisis that was not of his making and he could not resolve it. He was a one-term president.
We all remember Bill Clinton and his sex scandal with the White House intern Monica Lewinsky. He
was a one-term president.
If my friend's theory is correct, George Bush the junior may be in trouble. He launched another
crisis situation after 9-11 with his War on Terror that made him popular. But his attack on Iraq has created a nightmare that
will not go away. The troops are tired and want to come home. People at home are tired of the war and want it ended. The Iraqi
people are in ruins and want help. And the United Nations, that did not sanction this attack, is not willing to jump in to
help. George the junior may be a one-term president.
To defeat Bush, however, my friend offered another theory based upon historical patterns. He said
the Democrats must put up a person with double letters in his (or her) name. Like Roosevelt, Kennedy, or Jimmy Carter. But
that is another story.
